The Development and Validation of a Diabetes Risk Score for High-Risk Thai Adults
Prasit Keesukphan MD*, Suwannee Chanprasertyothin MSc**, Boonsong Ongphiphadhanakul MD***, Gobchai Puavilai MD***
Affiliation : * Department of Family Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University ** Research Center, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University *** Department of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University
Objective : To develop a simple risk score to identify high-risk individuals for diabetes screening in Thailand.
Materials and Methods : The authors analyzed data from 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests performed in 159
males and 270 females, aged 48.4 + 10.9 years.
Results : The independent variables associated with diabetes included age (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.01) and
known history of hypertension (HHT) (p < 0.01). The risk equation was Y = 3age + 5BMI +50HHT. At the
cut-off Y value of 240, the sensitivity and specificity for having diabetes were 96.8% and 24.0%, respectively.
The positive predictive value was 17.8% and the negative predictive value was 97.8%. Using the equation in
a validation group comprising 1617 subjects, it was found that 560 (34.6%) diabetes screenings could be
saved while 28 subjects (12.8%) with diabetes would be missed.
Conclusion : The authors have developed a simple risk scoring method that should be helpful in decreasing
the number of unnecessary screening and optimizing the costs associated with diabetes screening.
Keywords : Diabetes screening, Risk score
